A victim of it's own success ?
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2:56 AM |
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Will Facebook end up being the victim of it's own success ? Methinks so.
Sure, there are tonnes of arguments to be made, either way.
For: the TINA factor i.e. Google's ineptitude at Social Networking (Orkut & Buzz).
Against: Privacy, changing habits, blah blah (it's a long list)
In my highly biased opinion, there are two things that will be the deciding factors:
Fact # 1: Facebook Connect is increasingly connecting websites to Facebook.
This trend will only accelerate. More and more websites will link to websites. You'll be able to use your Facebook ID on these sites too. Liking or sharing information will be seamless across websites, making Facebook a kind of one-stop-shop for all your needs.
This alone, virtually guarantees a somewhat safe future for Facebook. It's not disappearing anytime soon, that's for sure !
Fact # 2: Facebook started off only for college kids, and now has anybody and everybody on it.
Facebook became so insanely popular with the rest of the world because it was popular with the kids in college, to begin with. They spread the word, as it were. Now, everybody and his Uncle are on Facebook. There's a lot of stuff going on with it. A lot of eyeballs are on Facebook. It's mainstream now !!
This might just turn off the younger lot. They'll come up with something newer, edgier, and much cooler. And if half the world is using a website to socialize, then that website just lost its 'coolness'. So I see more and more youngsters drifting away from Facebook. Where? God know! But, there's bound to be a steady decline.
Will it disappear? No. It'll probably become something that does fairly well, something that a lot of people use, but something that is no longer 'happening'. Staid and boring. It'll become Hotmail !!
Sure, there are tonnes of arguments to be made, either way.
For: the TINA factor i.e. Google's ineptitude at Social Networking (Orkut & Buzz).
Against: Privacy, changing habits, blah blah (it's a long list)
In my highly biased opinion, there are two things that will be the deciding factors:
Fact # 1: Facebook Connect is increasingly connecting websites to Facebook.
This trend will only accelerate. More and more websites will link to websites. You'll be able to use your Facebook ID on these sites too. Liking or sharing information will be seamless across websites, making Facebook a kind of one-stop-shop for all your needs.This alone, virtually guarantees a somewhat safe future for Facebook. It's not disappearing anytime soon, that's for sure !
Fact # 2: Facebook started off only for college kids, and now has anybody and everybody on it.
Facebook became so insanely popular with the rest of the world because it was popular with the kids in college, to begin with. They spread the word, as it were. Now, everybody and his Uncle are on Facebook. There's a lot of stuff going on with it. A lot of eyeballs are on Facebook. It's mainstream now !!This might just turn off the younger lot. They'll come up with something newer, edgier, and much cooler. And if half the world is using a website to socialize, then that website just lost its 'coolness'. So I see more and more youngsters drifting away from Facebook. Where? God know! But, there's bound to be a steady decline.
Will it disappear? No. It'll probably become something that does fairly well, something that a lot of people use, but something that is no longer 'happening'. Staid and boring. It'll become Hotmail !!
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